Correspondencia vacunación-inmunización como necesidad social y reto para la ciencia y la educación médica / Vaccination-immunization correspondence as a social need and challenge for science and medical education

Introducción: La vacunación constituye el arma preventiva más efectiva para las enfermedades trasmisibles que conoce la humanidad. Hacer que las vacunas aplicadas sean realmente inmunizantes resulta la responsabilidad de los profesionales de la atención primaria. Del mismo modo, es importante que se acepte, sin recelo, la vacunación, sobre todo en la situación epidemiológica actual. Objetivo: Describir las implicaciones sociales, económicas y éticas relacionadas con la existencia de vacunas teóricamente no inmunizantes. Métodos: Se emplearon los resultados de un programa de intervención educativa en edades pediátricas en el Policlínico 13 de marzo. Se utilizó la prueba de rangos con signo de Wilcoxon, con índice de confianza del 95 por ciento. Resultados: Inicialmente, predominó el nivel inadecuado de conocimiento, que luego mejoró significativamente. Se recuperaron 48 niños no vacunados y 29 vacunaciones no inmunizados. Conclusiones: No existe correspondencia entre las coberturas vacunales y la inmunización. Están instauradas, como correctas, falsas contraindicaciones para la vacunación. La intervención educativa fue efectiva, y se hizo patente la pertinencia de programas de pregrado y posgrado que perfeccionen la formación de los profesionales y la calidad en el desempeño profesional(AU)

Introduction: Vaccination is the most effective preventive weapon for communicable diseases known to humanity. It is the responsibility of primary health care professionals to ensure that the administered vaccines are truly immunizing. Likewise, it is important that vaccination be accepted without hesitations, especially in the current epidemiological situation. Objective: To describe the social, economic and ethical implications related to the existence of theoretically nonimmunizing vaccines. Methods: The results of an educational intervention program in pediatric ages at 13 de Marzo Policlinic were used. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used, with a confidence index of 95 percent. Results: Initially, an inadequate level of knowledge predominated, which later improved significantly. Forty-eight unvaccinated children and 29 unimmunized children recovered. Conclusions: There is no correspondence between vaccination coverage and immunization. False contraindications for vaccination are established as correct. The educational intervention was effective, while the relevance became evident for undergraduate and postgraduate programs to improve the training of professionals and the quality of professional performance(AU)

Estimating total spending by source of funding on routine and supplementary immunisation activities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: a financial modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Childhood immunisation is one of the most cost-effective health interventions. However, despite its known value, global access to vaccines remains far from complete. Although supply-side constraints lead to inadequate vaccine coverage in many health systems, there is no comprehensive analysis of the funding for immunisation. We aimed to fill this gap by generating estimates of funding for immunisation disaggregated by the source of funding and the type of activities in order to highlight the funding landscape for immunisation and inform policy making. METHODS: For this financial modelling study, we estimated annual spending on immunisations for 135 low-income and middle-income countries (as determined by the World Bank) from 2000 to 2017, with a focus on government, donor, and out-of-pocket spending, and disaggregated spending for vaccines and delivery costs, and routine schedules and supplementary campaigns. To generate these estimates, we extracted data from National Health Accounts, the WHO-UNICEF Joint Reporting Forms, comprehensive multi-year plans, databases from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's 2019 development assistance for health database. We estimated total spending on immunisation by aggregating the government, donor, prepaid private, and household spending estimates. FINDINGS: Between 2000 and 2017, funding for immunisation totalled US$112·4 billion (95% uncertainty interval 108·5-118·5). Aggregated across all low-income and middle-income countries, government spending consistently remained the largest source of funding, providing between 60·0% (57·7-61·9) and 79·3% (73·8-81·4) of total immunisation spending each year (corresponding to between $2·5 billion [2·3-2·8] and $6·4 billion [6·0-7·0] each year). Across income groups, immunisation spending per surviving infant was similar in low-income and lower-middle-income countries and territories, with average spending of $40 (38-42) in low-income countries and $42 (39-46) in lower-middle-income countries, in 2017. In low-income countries and territories, development assistance made up the largest share of total immunisation spending (69·4% [64·6-72·0]; $630·2 million) in 2017. Across the 135 countries, we observed higher vaccine coverage and increased government spending on immunisation over time, although in some countries, predominantly in Latin America and the Caribbean and in sub-Saharan Africa, vaccine coverage decreased over time, while spending increased. INTERPRETATION: These estimates highlight the progress over the past two decades in increasing spending on immunisation. However, many challenges still remain and will require dedication and commitment to ensure that the progress made in the previous decade is sustained and advanced in the next decade for the Immunization Agenda 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Using Contingent Valuation Method to Estimate Adults' Willingness to Pay for a Future Coronavirus 2019 Vaccination.

OBJECTIVES: Vaccines are recognized as the most effective strategy for long-term prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) because they can reduce morbidity and mortality. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate willingness to pay (WTP) for a future COVID-19 vaccination among young adults in Southern Vietnam. METHODS: A cross-sectional, descriptive, and analytic study was undertaken with data collected from a community-based survey in southern Vietnam for 2 weeks in May 2020. The contingent valuation method was used to estimate WTP for COVID-19 vaccine. The average amount that respondents were willing to pay for the vaccine was US$ 85.9 2 ± 69.01. RESULTS: We also found the differences in WTP according to sex, living area, monthly income, and the level of self-rated risk of COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Our findings possibly contribute to the implementation of a pricing policy when the COVID-19 vaccine is introduced in Vietnam.

Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019-2029.

The polio endgame remains complicated, with many questions about future polio vaccines and national immunization policies. We simulated possible future poliovirus vaccine routine immunization policies for countries stratified by World Bank Income Levels and estimated the expected costs and cases using an updated integrated dynamic poliovirus transmission, stochastic risk, and economic model. We consider two reference cases scenarios: one that achieves the eradication of all wild polioviruses (WPVs) by 2023 and one in which serotype 1 WPV (WPV1) transmission continues. The results show that the addition of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) to routine immunization in all countries substantially increased the expected costs of the polio endgame, without substantially increasing its expected health or economic benefits. Adding a second dose of IPV to the routine immunization schedules of countries that currently include a single IPV dose further increases costs and does not appear economically justified in the reference case that does not stop WPV transmission. For the reference case that includes all WPV eradication, adding a second IPV dose at the time of successful oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation represents a cost-effective option. The risks and costs of needing to restart OPV use change the economics of the polio endgame, although the time horizon used for modeling impacts the overall economic results. National health leaders will want to consider the expected health and economic net benefits of their national polio vaccine strategies recognizing that preferred strategies may differ.

Comparative Distributional Impact of Routine Immunization and Supplementary Immunization Activities in Delivery of Measles Vaccine in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

OBJECTIVES: In many countries, measles disproportionately affects poorer households. To achieve equitable delivery, national immunization programs can use 2 main delivery platforms: routine immunization and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs). The objective of this article is to use data concerning measles vaccination coverage delivered via routine and SIA strategies to make inferences about the associated equity impact. METHODS: We relied on Demographic and Health Survey and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys multi-country survey data to conduct a comparative analysis of routine and SIA measles vaccination status of children by wealth quintile. We estimated the value of the angle, θ, for the ratio of the difference between coverage levels of adjacent wealth quintiles by using the arc-tangent formula. For each country/year observation, we averaged the θ estimates into one summary measurement, defined as the "equity impact number." RESULTS: Across 20 countries, the equity impact number summarized across wealth quintiles was greater (and hence less equitable) for routine delivery than for SIAs in the survey rounds (years) during, before, and after an SIA about 65% of the time. The equity impact numbers for routine measles vaccination averaged across wealth quintiles were usually greater than for SIA measles vaccination across country-year observations. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis examined how different measles vaccine delivery platforms can affect equity. It can serve to elucidate the impact of immunization and public health programs in terms of comparing horizontal to vertical delivery efforts and in reducing health inequalities in global and country-level decision-making.

Cost-effectiveness evaluations of the 9-Valent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine: Evidence from a systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs are established to be cost-effective before implementation. WHO recommends HPV vaccination for girls aged 9-13 years to tackle the high burden of cervical cancer. This review examined the existing evidence on the cost-effectiveness of the 9-valent HPV vaccine within a global context. METHODS: The literature search covering a period of January 2000 to 31 July 2019 was conducted in PubMed and Scopus bibliographic databases. A combined checklist (i.e., WHO, Drummond and CHEERS) was used to examine the quality of eligible studies. A total of 12 studies were eligible for this review and most of them were conducted in developed countries. RESULTS: Despite some heterogeneity in approaches to measure cost-effectiveness, ten studies concluded that 9vHPV vaccination was cost-effective and two did not. The addition of adolescent boys into immunisation programs was cost effective when vaccine price and coverage was comparatively low. When vaccination coverage for females was more than 75%, gender neutral HPV vaccination was less cost-effective than vaccination targeting only girls aged 9-18 years. Multi cohort immunization approach was found cost-effective in the age range of 9-14 years. However, the upper age limit at which vaccination was found not cost-effective requires further evaluation. This review identified duration of vaccine protection, time horizon, vaccine price, coverage, healthcare costs, efficacy and discounting rates as the most dominating parameters in determining cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: These findings have implications in extending HPV immunization programs whether switching to the 9-valent vaccine or the inclusion of adolescent boys' vaccination or extending the age of vaccination. Further, this review also supports extending vaccination programs to low-resource settings where vaccine prices are competitive, donor funding is available, burden of cervical cancer is high and screening options are limited.

Budget line items for immunization in 33 African countries.

When seeking to ensure financial sustainability of a health programme, existence of a line item in the Ministry of Health (MOH) budget is often seen as an essential, first step. We used immunization as a reference point for cross-country comparison of budgeting methods in Sub-Saharan African countries. Study objectives were to (1) verify the number and types of budget line items for immunization services, (2) compare budget execution with budgeted amounts and (3) compare values with annual immunization expenditures reported to WHO and UNICEF. MOH budgets for 2016 and/or 2017 were obtained from 33 countries. Despite repeated attempts, budgets could not be retrieved from five countries (Chad, Eritrea, Guinea Bissau, Somalia and South Sudan), and we were only able to gather budget execution from eight countries. The number of immunization line items ranged between 0 and 42, with a median of eight. Immunization donor funding was included in 10 budgets. Differences between budgeted amounts and expenditures reported to WHO and UNICEF were greater than 50% in 66% of countries. Immunization budgets per child in the birth cohort ranged from US$1.37 (Democratic Republic of Congo) to US$67.51 (Central African Republic), with an average of US$10.05. Out of the total Government health budget, immunization comprised between 0.04% (Madagascar) and 5.67% (Benin), with an average of 1.98% across the countries, when excluding on-budget donor funds. It was challenging to obtain MOH budgets in many countries and it was largely impossible to access budget execution reports, preventing us from assessing budget credibility. Large differences between budgets and expenditures reported to WHO and UNICEF are likely due to inconsistent interpretations of reporting requirements, diverse approaches to reporting donor funds, challenges in extracting the relevant information from public financial management systems and broader issues of public financial management capacity in MOH staff.

Recent setbacks in measles elimination: the importance of investing in innovations for immunizations.

The recent setbacks in efforts to achieve measles elimination goals are alarming. To reverse the current trends, it is imperative that the global health community urgently intensify efforts and make resource commitments to implement evidence-based elimination strategies fully, including supporting research and innovations. The Immunization Agenda 2030: A Global Strategy to Leave No One Behind (IA2030) is the new global guidance document that builds on lessons learned and progress made toward the GVAP goals, includes research and innovation as a core strategic priority, and identifies measles as a "tracer" for improving immunisation services and strengthening primary health care systems. To achieve vaccination coverage and equity targets that leave no one behind, and accelerate progress toward disease eradication and elimination goals, sustained and predictable investments are needed for the identified research and innovations priorities for the new decade.

A cross-sectional study on selected child health outcomes in India: Quantifying the spatial variations and identification of the parental risk factors.

This study examined association between selected child health indicators- anaemia, stunting and no/incomplete immunization by inter-linking maternal characteristics at district level and parental characteristics at individual level. A spatial analysis and a binary logit model estimation were employed to draw inferences using the data from the fourth round of National Family Health Survey, 2015-16 of India. Significant spatial clustering of the selected child health outcomes was observed in the country. Mother's educational attainment explained significant district level differential in the selected child health outcomes. At the individual level, parents who are very young, not-educated, socially excluded, belong to poor class were found to be significantly associated with the poor child health outcomes. This study indicates that parental characteristics, such as age, educational attainment and employment substantially determine child health in India, suggesting that an intervention by targeting the households where children are vulnerable is important to improve child health in the country.

Assessing changes in costs of maternal postpartum services between 2013 and 2014 in Burkina Faso.

INTRODUCTION: In Africa, a majority of women bring their infant to health services for immunization, but few are checked in the postpartum (PP) period. The Missed opportunities for maternal and infant health (MOMI) EU-funded project has implemented a package of interventions at community and facility levels to uptake maternal and infant postpartum care (PPC). One of these interventions is the integration of maternal PPC in child clinics and infant immunization services, which proved to be successful for improving maternal and infant PPC. AIM: Taking stock of the progress achieved in terms of PPC with the implementation of the interventions, this paper assesses the economic cost of maternal PPC services, for health services and households, before and after the project start in Kaya health district (Burkina Faso). METHODS: PPC costs to health services are estimated using secondary data on personnel and infrastructure and primary data on time allocation. Data from two household surveys collected before and after one year intervention among mothers within one year PP are used to estimate the household cost of maternal PPC visits. We also compare PPC costs for households and health services with or without integration. We focus on the costs of the PPC intervention at days 6-10 that was most successful. RESULTS: The average unit cost of health services for days 6-10 maternal PPC decreased from 4.6 USD before the intervention in 2013 (Jan-June) to 3.5 USD after the intervention implementation in 2014. Maternal PPC utilization increased with the implementation of the interventions but so did days 6-10 household mean costs. Similarly, the household costs increased with the integration of maternal PPC to BCG immunization. CONCLUSION: In the context of growing reproductive health expenditures from many funding sources in Burkina Faso, the uptake of maternal PPC led to a cost reduction, as shown for days 6-10, at health services level. Further research should determine whether the increase in costs for households would be deterrent to the use of integrated maternal and infant PPC.

The cost saving opportunity of introducing a card review into measles-containing vaccination campaigns.

Measles vaccination is a cost-effective way to prevent infection and reduce mortality and morbidity. However, in countries with fragile routine immunization infrastructure, coverage rates are still low and supplementary immunization campaigns (SIAs) are used to reach previously unvaccinated children. During campaigns, vaccine is generally administered to every child, regardless of their vaccination status and as a result, there is the possibility that a child that is already immune to measles (i.e. who has had 2+ vaccinations) would receive an unnecessary dose, resulting in excess cost. Selective vaccination has been proposed as one solution to this; children who were able to provide documentation of previous vaccination would not be vaccinated repeatedly. While this would result in reduced vaccine and supply cost, it would also require additional staff time and increased social mobilization investment, potentially outweighing the benefits. We utilize Monte Carlo simulation to assess under what conditions a selective vaccination policy would indeed result in net savings. We demonstrate that cost savings are possible in contexts with a high joint probability of an individual child having both 2+ previous measles doses and also an available record. We also find that the magnitude of net cost savings is highly dependent on whether a country is using measles-only or measles-rubella vaccine and on the required skill set of the individual who would review the previous vaccination records.

Mapping diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus vaccine coverage in Africa, 2000-2016: a spatial and temporal modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Routine childhood vaccination is among the most cost-effective, successful public health interventions available. Amid substantial investments to expand vaccine delivery throughout Africa and strengthen administrative reporting systems, most countries still require robust measures of local routine vaccine coverage and changes in geographical inequalities over time. METHODS: This analysis drew from 183 surveys done between 2000 and 2016, including data from 881 268 children in 49 African countries. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model calibrated to results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017, to produce annual estimates with high-spatial resolution (5 ×    5 km) of diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus (DPT) vaccine coverage and dropout for children aged 12-23 months in 52 African countries from 2000 to 2016. FINDINGS: Estimated third-dose (DPT3) coverage increased in 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 64·6-80·3) of second-level administrative units in Africa from 2000 to 2016, but substantial geographical inequalities in DPT coverage remained across and within African countries. In 2016, DPT3 coverage at the second administrative (ie, district) level varied by more than 25% in 29 of 52 countries, with only two (Morocco and Rwanda) of 52 countries meeting the Global Vaccine Action Plan target of 80% DPT3 coverage or higher in all second-level administrative units with high confidence (posterior probability ≥95%). Large areas of low DPT3 coverage (≤50%) were identified in the Sahel, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, and in Angola. Low first-dose (DPT1) coverage (≤50%) and high relative dropout (≥30%) together drove low DPT3 coverage across the Sahel, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, Guinea, and Angola. INTERPRETATION: Despite substantial progress in Africa, marked national and subnational inequalities in DPT coverage persist throughout the continent. These results can help identify areas of low coverage and vaccine delivery system vulnerabilities and can ultimately support more precise targeting of resources to improve vaccine coverage and health outcomes for African children. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

[Efficacy, safety, and cost-effectiveness of meningococcal vaccines].

Meningococcal meningitis is an acute, severe respiratory infectious disease caused by Neisseria meningitidis. Immunization with meningococcal vaccine is the most effective measure to control and prevent transmission of meningococcal meningitis. Meningococcal vaccines in the Chinese market include meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine, meningococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine, and a combined vaccine containing meningococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine. This article reviews research progress on the efficacy, safety, and cost-effectiveness of meningococcal vaccines, particularly in the Chinese market, to support appropriate use of the various meningococcal vaccines for preventing meningococcal meningitis.

Review of the economic evidence presented to the United States Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, 2012-2016.

We identified 16 Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) presentations from 2012 to 2016 that indicated 'cost' or 'economic' content. Characteristics were reviewed, abstracted, and tabulated to quantify and assess the transparency and consistency of economic evidence presented to ACIP. To assess transparency, we documented if each study identified author affiliation, conflicts of interest, study limitations, a clearly described model structure and other model attributes. To assess consistency, we identified the frequency of specific modeling choices, including the perspective, types of health outcomes considered, inclusion of specific types of costs, discount rate, and use of sensitivity analyses. Our results indicate that the content in these presentations appear to be transparent overall and consistent in several important areas, such as study perspective and health outcomes. However, we find the inclusion of particular types of direct costs, indirect costs, program costs, and sensitivity analyses are areas that could improve consistency.

Should we use Palivizumab immunoprophylaxis for infants against respiratory syncytial virus? - a cost-utility analysis.

BACKGROUND: Passive immunization against RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus) is given in most western countries (including Israel) to infants of high risk groups such as premature babies, and infants with Congenital Heart Disease or Congenital Lung Disease. However, immunoprophylaxis costs are extremely high ($2800-$4200 per infant). Using cost-utility analysis criteria, we evaluate whether it is justified to expand, continue or restrict nationwide immunoprophylaxis using palivizumab of high risk infants against RSV. METHODS: Epidemiological, demographic, health service utilisation and economic data were integrated from primary (National Hospitalization Data, etc.) and secondary data sources (ie: from published articles) into a spread-sheet to calculate the cost per averted disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of vaccinating various infant risk groups. Costs of intervention included antibody plus administration costs. Treatment savings and DALYs averted were estimated from applying vaccine efficacy data to relative risks of being hospitalised and treated for RSV, including possible long-term sequelae like asthma and wheezing. RESULTS: For all the groups RSV immunoprophylaxis is clearly not cost effective as its cost per averted DALY exceeds the $105,986 guideline representing thrice the per capita Gross Domestic Product. Vaccine price would have to fall by 48.1% in order to justify vaccinating Congenital Heart Disease or Congenital Lung Disease risk groups respectively on pure cost-effectiveness grounds. For premature babies of < 29 weeks, 29-32 and 33-36 weeks gestation, decreases of 36.8%, 54.5% and 83.3% respectively in vaccine price are required. CONCLUSIONS: Based solely on cost-utility analysis, at current price levels it is difficult to justify the current indications for passive vaccination with Palivizumab against RSV. However, if the manufacturers would reduce the price by 54.5% then it would be cost-effective to vaccinate the Congenital Heart Disease or Congenital Lung Disease risk groups as well as premature babies born before the 33rd week of gestation.

Preferences for health economics presentations among vaccine policymakers and researchers.

PURPOSE: Measure the preferences of decision makers and researchers associated with the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) regarding the recommended format for presenting health economics studies to the ACIP. METHODS: We conducted key informant interviews and an online survey of current ACIP work group members, and current and previous ACIP voting members, liaison representatives, and ex-officio members to understand preferences for health economics presentations. These preferences included the presentation of results and sensitivity analyses, the role of health economics studies in decision making, and strategies to improve guidelines for presenting health economics studies. Best-worst scaling was used to measure the relative value of seven attributes of health economics presentations in vaccine decision making. RESULTS: The best-worst scaling survey had a response rate of 51% (n = 93). Results showed that summary results were the most important attribute for decision making (mean importance score: 0.69) and intermediate outcomes and disaggregated results were least important (mean importance score: -0.71). Respondents without previous health economics experience assigned sensitivity analysis lower importance and relationship of the results to other studies higher importance than the experienced group (sensitivity analysis scores: -0.15 vs. 0.15 respectively; relationship of the results: 0.13 vs. -0.12 respectively). Key informant interviews identified areas for improvement to include additional information on the quality of the analysis and increased role for liaisons familiar with health economics. CONCLUSION: Additional specificity in health economics presentations could allow for more effective presentations of evidence for vaccine decision making.

Expenditures on vaccine-preventable disease surveillance: Analysis and evaluation of comprehensive multi-year plans (cMYPs) for immunization.

Despite the importance of vaccine-preventable disease (VPD) surveillance, little is known about the costs of monitoring disease. We used Comprehensive Multi-Year Plans for Immunization (cMYPs) - developed by countries following guidelines from the World Health Organization and United Nations Children's Fund - to estimate expenditures on VPD surveillance at the country level in 2015 US Dollars (USD) in 63 low- and middle-income countries. To evaluate the reliability of cMYP estimates, we also compared cMYP data with findings from previous research studies and assessed whether countries explicitly budgeted for major categories of surveillance activities in their plans for immunization. According to our analysis of cMYPs, countries spent an annual median of $406,108 on VPD surveillance ($0.04 per capita and $1.47 per infant), with reported expenditures ranging from $1,098 (Kiribati) to $21,644,770 (Nigeria). However, the majority of countries failed to explicitly mention several key categories of surveillance activities in their plans, especially laboratory-related surveillance activities. Our results show a large amount of variation in surveillance expenditures (total, per capita, and per infant) between countries and provide insights to improve costing guidelines and practices.

Practices and Attitudes of Michigan-Based Occupational Physicians Regarding Adult Immunization.

OBJECTIVE: To assess practices and barriers regarding adult immunizations, among occupational and environmental physicians in Michigan. METHODS: A 10-item multiple choice web based questionnaire was designed after reviewing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations and the current literature on adult immunization standards. RESULTS: Assessing immunization status is common practice for 62% of respondents. 92% of respondents recommend the annual influenza vaccination, unless contraindicated. The most commonly reported barriers included the cost of providing immunizations and the prioritization of acute over preventative care. Use of standing order vaccinations and reminder-recall systems were popular strategies used to improve vaccination rates. CONCLUSIONS: Occupational physicians frequently recommend influenza, tetanus, and hepatitis B vaccines when indicated, but are less likely to order other vaccines for patients. Promotion of a more comprehensive assessment of immunity needs in the workplace may improve national vaccine coverage.

Forecasting demand for maternal influenza immunization in low- and lower-middle-income countries.

Immunization of pregnant women against seasonal influenza remains limited in low- and lower-middle-income countries despite being recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO/PATH Maternal Influenza Immunization Project was created to identify and address obstacles to delivering influenza vaccines to pregnant women in low resource setting. To gain a better understanding of potential demand from this target group, we developed a model simulating pregnant women populations eligible for vaccination during antenatal care (ANC) services in all low- and lower-middle-income countries. We assessed potential vaccine demand in the context of both seasonal and year-round vaccination strategies and identified the ways that immunization programs may be affected by availability gaps in supply linked to current vaccine production cycles and shelf life duration. Results of our analysis, which includes 54 eligible countries in 2015 for New Vaccine Support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, suggest the demand for influenza vaccines could be 7.7 to 16.0 million doses in 2020, and 27.0 to 61.7 million doses by 2029. If current trends in production capacity and actual production of seasonal influenza vaccines were to continue, global vaccine supply would be sufficient to meet this additional demand-although a majority of countries would face implementation issues linked to timing of supply.